In 2027, property prices in France are expected to remain broadly stable, with a slight decline possible at national level and sharp differences between cities and property types. Prices for existing homes are already falling moderately (-0.8% over one year in the second quarter of 2026, according to the notaires and Insee), mortgage rates are rising with the 10-year OAT above 5%, and the supply of properties is growing faster than demand. These factors argue against a general increase, without pointing to a crash: the shortage of new housing and the resilience of large cities and the coast are supporting prices.
Information up to date as of November 2026. Forecasts are indicative and do not constitute a commitment.
In summary
- Starting point: existing-home prices at -0.8% over one year, houses -1.3%, apartments -0.1%, Paris at around €9,560/m².
- Key factor for 2027: the cost of credit, with average rates of 3.51% over 20 years in November 2026 and a risk of reaching 4% in early 2027.
- Central scenario: national prices between -2% and +1% in 2027, with volumes of around 900,000 sales.
- Local differences will remain larger than the national trend.
Where do property prices stand at the end of 2026?
Indicator | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
Existing-home prices over one year (Q2 2026) | -0.8% | Notaires-Insee |
Houses / apartments | -1.3% / -0.1% | Notaires-Insee |
Projection at end of November 2026 | -0.4% (houses) / -0.5% (apartments) | Notaires |
Sales over 12 months to end of August 2026 | 951,000 (+3.6%) | Notaires |
2026 sales forecast | 900,000 to 920,000 | Notaires, Fnaim |
Average negotiation margin | 4.8% | Laforêt |
Official indices are published every quarter by Insee and the notaires; you can follow the trends on the official website of the notaires of France.
Sale prices and asking prices: why the figures diverge
The notaires measure actual signed sale prices, with a lag of several months. The property portals measure asking prices in listings, in real time. In 2026, Bien'ici is recording a slight rise in asking prices for apartments (+0.7%), while the notaires are observing near-stability in signed prices. The gap is explained by negotiation: around 9 in 10 sales are concluded below the listing price, with an average discount of 4.8% according to Laforêt.
Sales volumes running out of steam
After a clear recovery in 2025, the number of sales is slowing: the notaires expect around 920,000 transactions at the end of 2026, and the Fnaim a range of 900,000 to 920,000. Fewer sales do not necessarily mean falling prices, but reflect a more selective market in which buyers take their time.
The factors that will move prices in 2027
Mortgage rates, the main driver
The average 20-year rate reaches 3.51% in November 2026. Several brokers expect it to go above 4% in the first quarter of 2027. With income unchanged, each 0.5-point rise reduces borrowing capacity by around 5%, which limits the prices buyers can pay. To translate these trends into a concrete value for your home, request a free property valuation.
The OAT and the State budget
The 10-year OAT crossed 5% on 21 October 2026. Its trajectory will depend on the credibility of the 2027 budget and on France's credit rating. Easing in the bond market would be the best support for prices; renewed tension would weaken them.
The 2027 presidential election
Election years are often accompanied by a wait-and-see attitude among households and tax uncertainty. The effect is felt mainly on the number of sales, less on prices.
The DPE and regulation
The new DPE calculation method from 1 January 2027 improves the energy rating of many electrically heated homes, which reduces the discount on certain properties. Conversely, the ban on renting out F-rated homes in 2028 could push landlords to sell and increase the supply of energy-inefficient properties.
The shortage of new housing
Listings for sale and reservations remain down in the new-build segment. This underproduction supports demand in the existing-home market over the medium term.
Local and national taxation
The expected increase in the property tax (taxe foncière) base values in 2027, the surcharges on council tax (taxe d'habitation) for second homes in high-demand areas, and the 2027 budget debates on the taxation of furnished rentals are influencing demand from investors and second-home buyers, especially in tourist areas.
Employment and household purchasing power
Employment is holding up overall, but inflation, which picked up again in 2026 with energy prices, is weighing on household budgets. An economic slowdown would reduce the number of buyers; an improvement would support it.
Three scenarios for property prices in 2027
Optimistic scenario: a slight recovery
With inflation receding, the ECB on hold and the OAT below 4.5%, interest rates ease from mid-2027 and prices rise by 1% to 2%, particularly in large cities and on the coast.
Central scenario: stability with local adjustments
Average rates between 3.6% and 4%, national prices between -2% and +1%, houses and energy-inefficient properties down slightly, and well-located small units stable. Property listings in your city already show these adjustments at the local level.
Pessimistic scenario: another correction
With the OAT staying above 5.25% for a sustained period and a further ECB rate increase: average rates above 4%, postponed projects, prices down 3% to 5%, and more for energy-inefficient properties.
Very different trends from one city to another
Brest (+5.8%), Rouen (+2.8%) and Dijon (+2.6%) are rising, Lyon (-0.4%) and Bordeaux (-0.2%) are adjusting, and Nantes is falling (-3.1% for apartments). Paris is stabilizing after a correction of about 12% since 2023. Affordable mid-sized cities and peri-urban areas are attracting households looking for more space. For your project, only the trend in your own area matters.
New-build and existing homes are not following the same trajectory
In the new-build segment, asking prices are falling and reservations remain down over one year. The low production of new homes shifts part of the demand to the existing-home market, which limits the fall in prices of well-located existing homes.
What the price trend means for sellers, buyers and investors
The same national trend does not have the same consequences depending on your project. Here is how to interpret it in 2027.
For homeowners who are selling
In a market that is stable to slightly falling, the initial asking price becomes decisive. Overpriced properties stay on the market for several months and are heavily negotiated, while properties at the right price sell within a reasonable time. If your project is planned for 2027, have your property valued now and prepare your file so you can take advantage of the spring, the most active period. A Capifrance advisor in your area can help you choose the right time and the right price.
For first-time buyers
Stable prices combined with a negotiation margin of close to 5% offer rather favorable buying conditions, provided you secure your financing quickly. The zero-interest loan (prêt à taux zéro), extended until the end of 2027, and the planned "PTZ parentalité" included in the 2027 budget (currently under review) may improve the financing plan of eligible households.
For second-time buyers
If you are selling in order to buy, price trends affect you in both directions: you sell for a little less, but you also buy in a more negotiable market. The real issue is the cost of credit on the new property and the proper coordination of the two transactions.
For investors
Prices adjusting in certain major cities open up interesting entry points. But with rates approaching 4%, net yield must be calculated rigorously, taking into account the property's DPE (energy performance diagnostic) and the ban on renting out homes rated F from 2028.
For homeowners with no plans to sell
If you are not planning to sell, a slight national decline has no concrete impact on your assets. It should, however, encourage you to maintain your property and to keep an eye on its energy rating, which weighs more and more heavily on its future value.
The expert's view
"I am often asked whether prices will fall in 2027, as if the answer would decide everything. In reality, the national trend is weak, in the order of a few tenths of a point to one or two points, whereas the gaps between two properties in the same neighbourhood can reach 10 or 15% depending on the DPE, the condition or the location. The factor to watch closely is credit rates: they directly determine buyers' budgets. If the OAT eases after the budget is adopted, we could see volumes pick up in the spring. If it stays above 5%, the market will continue to adjust through negotiation. In either case, my advice does not change: sellers, set a fair price; buyers, secure your financing and negotiate on facts rather than waiting for a spectacular drop that is unlikely to happen."
— Frédéric Rémy, Commercial Performance Director at Capifrance
Conclusion
Property prices should neither soar nor collapse in 2027. The most likely scenario is national stability with local adjustments, under the influence of credit rates. Rather than speculating on the trend, rely on data for your area and on the support of a professional.
To find out the value of your property in your town or city, request a free online property valuation. If you are buying, browse Capifrance property listings and contact a local advisor to analyse neighbourhood prices. Do you know someone who is selling? Become a Capifrance business referrer.
FAQ - Frequently asked questions
Will there be a property crash in 2027?
No credible source anticipates one. The market is adjusting through volumes and negotiation rather than through a sharp drop in prices.
Should you wait until 2027 to buy at a lower price?
A possible fall in prices could be offset by a rise in rates. If your project is ready, negotiating today is often more profitable than waiting.
Which properties hold up best?
Well-located apartments, properties with a good DPE and homes close to transport and services.
Where can I find the actual prices in my neighbourhood?
In the public DVF sales database and from a property advisor who knows the recent transactions in your area.
Will apartment prices fall in 2027?
Apartments are holding up better than houses (-0.1% over one year in the second quarter of 2026). Stability is the most likely scenario, with variations from one city to another.
When will rates fall?
An easing is only conceivable if inflation recedes and the OAT falls. Current forecasts instead point to a moderate rise until early 2027.
Will new-build prices fall?
Advertised prices for new-build properties are already falling, and developers often offer discounts or waive notary fees. However, low production could limit these declines in the medium term.
Will prices fall in Paris in 2027?
After a correction of around 12% since the 2023 peak, Paris is stabilising. A further marked decline seems unlikely, barring a sharp rise in rates.
Which indicators should you follow to anticipate price trends?
Keep an eye on credit rates, the 10-year OAT, the number of sales published by notaries, the average time a property stays on the market and the negotiation margin in your city. A local advisor can summarise them for your neighbourhood.
Should you buy before rates rise further?
If your project is well advanced and your financing is ready, securing a rate today protects your budget. Waiting only makes sense if your project is not yet defined.
Will prices fall further in small towns?
Medium-sized and small towns have highly variable trajectories: some are growing, while others are declining. Local demand, employment and the condition of the housing stock make the difference.
Author
Frédéric Rémy – Director of Sales Performance
A real estate professional with several years of experience within the Capifrance network, I would like to share essential advice with you to help you successfully complete your property project with our advisors.
